CAMPAIGN ’88 : Poll Finds Dukakis and Bush in Dead Heat

Democrat Michael S. Dukakis and Republican George Bush are locked in a dead heat in their presidential race, according to a poll of registered voters released Wednesday.

The ABC News/Washington Post survey found Dukakis holding a one-point lead over Bush--48% to 47%--a statistically insignificant margin because the poll’s margin of error was 3 1/2 percentage points.

The poll of 1,129 likely voters conducted Aug. 24 through Tuesday night was similar to a survey a week earlier that found Bush leading by two points--48% to 46%.

Dukakis enjoyed his biggest lead in the ABC/Post survey shortly after the Democratic convention in July, when he led his GOP opponent by 15 percentage points.

According to the latest survey, twice as many voters--53%--believe Democratic vice presidential nominee Lloyd Bentsen is more qualified than his GOP rival, Dan Quayle. Twenty-six percent regarded Quayle as more qualified.

The poll also found that Bush’s aggressive campaign style of the last few days--and Dukakis’ lack of response--has had little effect on two key groups: Democrats who voted for President Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and independents.

Among the Reagan Democrats, Dukakis led 58% to 34%, little changed from a week earlier. Bush continued to lead among independents, 52% to 38%.

The gender gap, in which women’s voting patterns vary from men’s, narrowed slightly but Dukakis still holds an advantage. In the latest poll, Dukakis led 51% to 43% among women voters while Bush held a 51% to 44% lead among men.