Bush Vows to ‘Keep Plugging Away’ in Mideast Impasse : Diplomacy: After a meeting with Baker he insists that ‘there is real cause for optimism.’

WASHINGTON — In the wake of another apparently fruitless Middle East shuttle mission by Secretary of State James A. Baker III, President Bush vowed Friday to “just keep on plugging away.”

Insisting after a meeting with Baker that “there is real cause for optimism” but declining to be specific, Bush said his Administration “will continue to work this process. We’re not about to stop.”

The President’s insistence on staying with the diplomatic process reflects an Administration policy in which perpetual motion, for now, has taken the place of actual progress toward peace in the region. Baker has made four trips to the Middle East in the last two months, and Bush suggested that he may undertake yet another.

In the meantime, U.S. officials continue to debate whether they should move to a new approach, such as unveiling a formal American peace proposal or inviting Middle East leaders to Washington for a conference designed to apply pressure for a compromise.

Bush’s advisers are split on that question, with some arguing that only a bold American stroke holds any hope of breaking the Middle East stalemate. Others insist that Bush must make sure he has a reasonable chance of success before staking his prestige on such a risky gambit.

Friday’s comments, made in a brief exchange with reporters on the White House South Lawn as Bush prepared to fly to his Camp David, Md., retreat for the weekend, followed a pattern in which Administration officials have offered upbeat appraisals of the negotiations in public, coupled with far more pessimistic assessments in private conversations.

That dual strategy has been possible, in part, because Bush has insisted on maintaining secrecy about the details of Baker’s talks, a policy he defended Friday. “A lot of it has got to be done in quiet diplomacy,” Bush said. “The way to solve this conundrum is not to get the parties’ positions by public statement.”

The Administration’s next move remains unclear. “If there’s reason to go back, he will,” Bush said of Baker. And the President joked: “It might kill him; he’s been traveling all the time.”

Indeed, the oft-traveled secretary of state appeared gray and tired after lunch with Bush, which followed a six-day trip covering more than 13,800 miles.

Current Administration strategy is based on a hope that the U.S. record in the Persian Gulf War, reinforced by Baker’s nearly constant presence in the region, eventually will force Middle Eastern leaders to make concessions for fear of appearing to be the party that killed hopes for peace.

“I think the credibility of the United States is higher in the Middle East than it’s ever been,” Bush said, voicing a sentiment that he has repeated frequently since the war ended. The region now has a “window of opportunity” for peace, he said. “I think it’s still there. . . . I don’t think there’s an erosion to it.”

So far, however, the only parties that have shown clear willingness to participate in a peace conference are the Palestinian residents of the West Bank and Gaza, who after nearly a quarter-century of Israeli occupation are willing to try almost anything, and Egypt, which already has a peace treaty with Israel and is therefore only partly a party to the conflict.

Israeli leaders have remained ambiguous about whether they really want to attend a conference, with Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir apparently fearful of any move that the most conservative elements of his government might see as concessions.

Syrian President Hafez Assad is equally uncertain, wavering between the desire to negotiate and the desire to seize Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s lost mantle as leader of the Arab radicals, in the judgment of U.S. officials.

Jordan’s King Hussein has given encouraging signs to U.S. officials, who assume that if Syria agreed to a conference, Hussein would follow suit. They doubt, however, that the Jordanian monarch would risk the domestic political fallout that would come from getting in front of his Syrian neighbors.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, offered a concession of sorts last week, saying that the secretary general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which the Saudis dominate, would participate in a conference as an observer. Having taken that step, the Saudis are not likely to go further, officials believe.

Times staff writer Norman Kempster contributed to this report.

Shuttle Diplomacy Revisited Goal: To convene regional peace conference. Strategy: Secretary of State James A. Baker III is pushing “two-track” Middle East formula: (1) negotiations between Israel and Arab states and (2) negotiations between Israel and Palestinians. Main stumbling blocks: Israel and Syria can’t agree on the role of the United Nations in any peace conference, or on how long any conference should remain in session. The players and where they stand: ISRAEL: Wants a one-time-only conference, giving way quickly to direct negotiations with its Arab neighbors. Sees no role for the United Nations and refuses to deal with the Palestine Liberation Organization. May have softened its positions but details are scarce. SYRIA: Wants the conference to be under U.N. auspices and wants it to remain in session to mediate disputes between Arab states and Israel. EGYPT: Willing to attend a conference regardless of how issues dividing Israel and Syria are resolved. SAUDI ARABIA: This kingdom and five other Arab nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council last week agreed to send a single representative to a Mideast peace conference. JORDAN: Chose the wrong side in the Gulf War, backing Iraq, and has been trying to put its house in order since. King Hussein is hopeful of returning Amman to its key role in Middle East politics.