Surveying Super Tuesday

For both parties, next week’s Super Tuesday offers the biggest bonanza of convention delegates in the primary campaign, and the results will go a long way toward determining the ultimate course of the Democratic and Republican races. At stake in the day’s 11 primaries and caucuses are 783 Democratic delegates and 500 Republican delegates.

WEEKEND WARM-UP

The key contests preceding Super Tuesday:

South Carolina (primary): Billed as Bush country, the state has the South’s best GOP organization and it is squarely behind the President in Saturday’s vote. But for the first time in the campaign, David Duke joins Buchanan as a Bush rival on the ballot. Among the Democrats, a large black electorate should boost Clinton. Recent polls give him a nearly 20 percentage point lead.

Arizona (caucus): Expected low turnout at Saturday’s gatherings should help Brown because of his base of committed activists. Clinton has a strong campaign organization, while Tsongas won the endorsements of the mayors of Phoenix and Tucson. Republicans hold closed caucuses next month to begin delegate selection process.

Nevada (caucus): Brown also could run well in Sunday’s contest; he made a splash during a campaign stop Wednesday when he grabbed a picket sign and joined striking workers outside a Las Vegas casino. Republicans caucus in May.

SUPER TUESDAY STATES

OKLAHOMA (Primary) Dem.: 45 GOP: 34 MISSOURI (Caucus) Dem.: 77 GOP: 47 DELAWARE (Caucus) Dem.: 14 GOP: 19 MASSACHUSETTS (Primary) Dem.: 94 GOP: 38 RHODE ISLAND (Primary) Dem.: 22 GOP: 15 TENNESSEE (Primary) Dem.: 68 GOP: 45 FLORIDA (Primary) Dem.: 148 GOP: 97 MISSISSIPPI (Primary) Dem.: 39 GOP: 32 LOUISIANA (Primary) Dem.: 60 GOP: 38 TEXAS (Primary) Dem.: 196 GOP: 121 HAWAII (Caucus) Dem.: 20 GOP: 14

THE DELEGATE TALLY

DEMOCRATS: 2,145 needed to win nomination Bill Clinton: 198 Paul E. Tsongas: 110 Tom Harkin: 79 Jerry Brown: 35 Bob Kerry: 22 Uncommitted: 219

REPUBLICANS: 1,105 needed to win nomination George Bush: 148 Patrick J. Buchanan: 20 Uncommitted: 5

OUTLOOK IN THE KEY STATES

Florida: This increasingly suburban state offers Tsongas his best chance to break through against Clinton in the South, making it a pivotal contest for the Democrats. For Bush, Florida could be a bright spot. Buchanan’s expectations are low-he has confined his campaign stops mainly to fund raising-and Duke is not on the ballot.

Texas: Bush is counting on voters in the state he calls home--and where the Republican convention will convene in August--to send him a resounding message of support. Clinton’s formidable base of rural whites, Latinos and blacks makes the state an uphill climb for any competitor. Tsongas is hoping for strong showings in Dallas and Houston suburbs; Brown will target college students in Austin and elsewhere.

Massachusetts and Rhode Island: Aside from being Tsongas’ home base, well-educated electorates should make these states strong for him. This is another of Bush’s home regions, but anti-tax sentiment has been a powerful force in Massachusetts’ GOP primaries in the past and could boost Buchanan.

Louisiana and Mississippi: Low-income states with large numbers of black voters and relatively few college-educated suburbanites fit the profile of the Clinton vote so far. The racial imagery Buchanan used effectively in Georgia could also move Republican voters here; he recently paid a highly publicized visit to the Mississippi grave site of an ancestor who served in the Confederacy. If Duke is to have any impact on the GOP race, it should surface in these two states.

Tennessee and Oklahoma: Tsongas won’t find many of his Volvo Democrats here: Relatively downscale, less well-educated states should reward Clinton with substantial margins. Tennessee’s GOP has a moderate bent that cuts against Buchanan.