What Powell Really Needs: a Reason to Run

SACRAMENTO — There may never before have been such genuine public encouragement for somebody to run for President. But one thing especially is holding back Colin Powell, according to a close friend: “He has to fill in the sentence, ‘I want to be President of the United States because . . .’ ”

“The Roger Mudd question,” notes this Washington insider, referring to the TV reporter’s famous query of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) that left the senator tongue-tied and fatally wounded early in his 1980 presidential bid.

“I can write the sentence (for him),” adds Powell’s friend, who did not want to be identified. “But he has to write it.”

In California last year, Democrat Kathleen Brown never could credibly answer the question of why she wanted to be governor. As with Kennedy, continuing the family legacy was not an adequate response and both knew it. They never offered that as a reason, but also never came up with a better one.

Neither, says Powell’s friend, is it enough just to want to be the first black President.

Powell says he agrees. “I really don’t want to be elected to be the first black American President,” he asserted in a recent New Yorker magazine interview. “I don’t want to be the poster child for the brothers or for guilty white liberals. That would not be true to the image I have of myself.”

Monday in San Francisco, where people waited in line more than eight hours for him to sign copies of his autobiography, Powell told reporters: “I am not trying to be a black leader.”

Powell could not get elected President as “a black leader.” But he might get elected as a leader who is black.

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The views of millions probably were echoed at another book-signing event in Fountain Valley on Tuesday when Christopher Corn, 28, a veteran of the Persian Gulf War, said of the retired general: “He’s not a politician. He’s a leader.”

Americans across the nation have been standing in long lines at bookstores and it’s obvious they’re being drawn by more than just reading material. Not since Dwight D. Eisenhower 44 years ago, at least, has a potential candidate become the object of such spontaneous public affection.

This Powellmania has many of us asking what it all means. Could Powell really get elected as a Republican, the direction he seems to be heading?

California--the most politically potent state in the nation--would seem to be a natural for him: socially tolerant, fiscally frugal and racially diverse. But he would need to finesse his way through conservative activists in the Republican primary. And, in any election, there’s the factor that pols only mention gingerly: race.

Racism, of course, exists at the ballot box and can work against or for a minority candidate, depending upon the particular electorate. In a statewide contest 13 years ago, pollster Mervyn D. Field calculated, then-Atty. Gen. George Deukmejian’s slim 1.2% margin of victory over black Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley in a gubernatorial election was attributable to “racial bias.”

But Arnold Steinberg, a veteran GOP consultant and pollster, believes racial bias today is different than age-old bigotry. Many voters simply want to be assured that a chief executive won’t favor another racial group over theirs, he says. “A lot of people would like to vote for Gen. Powell and they’d do it if they thought he’d be the President of everybody.”

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Similarly, some experts say, Powell perhaps could appease many GOP conservatives by seeming not to threaten their causes, by being a benign centrist on social issues. That, after all, is where average voters are positioned.

“People are asking all kinds of esoteric questions about specific issues,” Steinberg says, “but in the end, a lot of voters--as opposed to activists--make their decisions based on the big picture. People retreat to single issues when they find nothing compelling about a candidate. But if someone really turns them on, they tend to disregard points of disagreement.”

“The best example of that,” he notes, was Ronald Reagan.

You hear many pols describing Powell as “Reaganesque”--in his projection of leadership, self-confidence, conviction and sincerity.

Assemblyman Kevin Murray (D-Los Angeles), an African American whose family long has been politically active, says Powell would “pull significant votes” from black Democrats as the GOP nominee. “People would take a chance with him. He’s right in line with most African American voters on traditional values. Obviously, he’s a great role model.”

Indeed, one pretty good reason to run for President would be the opportunity to serve as a role model and inspiration, especially for inner-city youths. The crucial sentence shouldn’t be all that difficult to complete.