A Carolina-Jacksonville Parlay Conceivable, but Not Probable

There are reasons both sound and logical to pick longshots Jacksonville and Carolina today:

--The approved way to go into the NFL’s big games is on a roll. And no team in the league has played better football lately than Jacksonville, which in the last two weeks has upset Buffalo in Buffalo and Denver in Denver.

The Jaguars are, moreover, heading into New England with the season’s hot quarterback, Mark Brunell; hot running back, Natrone Means, and hot offensive coordinator, Kevin Gilbride.

--Even though Carolina is not as likely to win in Green Bay, the truth is that the Panthers were built to beat teams like Green Bay, whose approach to football is like San Francisco’s. That is, the Carolina defense was built to beat quick-rhythm passing. That’s the 49er way, which is also the Packer way.

In twice defeating San Francisco this season, Carolina demonstrated that what it takes is disruptive blitzing combined with unpredictable pass coverage. And the Panthers excel at both.

What’s more, with 6-foot-5 Kerry Collins, they pass well enough to win today. They haven’t, however, proved that they run well enough. A successful parlay from Carolina to Jacksonville is merely conceivable, not probable.

*

The Carolina defensive team will learn shortly that on a freezing Wisconsin winter day, tackling a fast-moving ballcarrier is one of the hardest things to do right--early in the game, particularly, before you’ve warmed up to it.

In cold weather, obviously, catching a ball is difficult. And passing is, too, But nobody thinks about tackling.

Carolina should, though. And after studying last week’s Packer-49er tapes, maybe it will. The 49ers in the first quarter could rarely get their hands on any Green Bay ballcarrier. Their fingers were numb, their hands were bundled up--robbing them of the power of feel--and they were cold all over.

As Green Bay moved into a quick 14-0 lead, the 49ers lost that game when, in the first eight minutes, they couldn’t tackle anybody.

*

Repeatedly in the 1990s it has been shown that the ideal twin instruments for a winning NFL offense are a talented passer and talented runner. And, with Brunell and Means, that is Jacksonville’s edge now--as it was Dallas’ edge with Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith until lately, when Smith lost a step.

Most of the one-time NFL contenders who are no longer alive this week lack either a Brunell or a Means. To win modern-day football games, it is the combination that’s required.

Making the point most graphically this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers lined up a Means-type, Jerome Bettis, but had no Brunell-type. Inexplicably, after losing Neil O’Donnell to free agency, Pittsburgh Coach Bill Cowher tried to play football with two backup quarterbacks, Mike Tomczak and Kordell Stewart.

As a coach, Cowher ranks with the NFL’s best now except as a student of passing and passers. He and his mentor, Kansas City’s Marty Schottenheimer, are defensive experts who might well be playing each other for the AFC title today if their passers and pass offenses were more professional.

To move up, they’ll have to do something about that between seasons.

*

Of the circumstances that took the Cowboys out of the playoffs in last week’s game, the most important, by far, was the injury that cost them wide receiver Michael Irvin on the first play.

To count on overcoming able opponents this year, Dallas quarterback Troy Aikmans needed Irvin outside or Jay Novacek at tight end, or both, but after Irvin had been tackled once in Charlotte, he had neither.

You needn’t endorse Irvin’s morals to approve of his athletic talent. At his position, he’s up there with San Francisco’s Jerry Rice among football’s most capable. Almost certainly, the Cowboys and not Carolina would be in Wisconsin this weekend if they had had Irvin last week.

*

The surprise collapse of the Denver Broncos in the Jacksonville game, when they had John Elway at quarterback all day, was largely brought on, it seems likely, by Elway himself, by his insistence on playing football in the shotgun formation.

And the story behind that is a sad one for Denver:

--Until this season, Elway, whose Hall of Fame talent is unquestioned, had had the bad luck to play on mostly bad Bronco teams. Of those he took to the Super Bowl, where he lost three times, some were among the worst Super Bowl teams ever.

--What Elway lacked the most in those days was a helpful running back. Nor, in former years, could the Broncos protect him when he was up under center. So he had to drop back into a shotgun location, where he got used to it. Thus he no longer feels comfortable under center, where, on a team with a balanced passing-running threat, he belongs.

--To a passer, the shotgun formation is frequently better than anything. To a ballcarrier, though, it’s a lousy formation, for, to gain yards consistently, a running back needs a quarterback who begins each play under center. In such formations, NFL teams pose two threats, the passer’s passes and running backs’ runs.

--With Elway in the shotgun last week against Jacksonville, on play after play, Denver only had one threat, Elway’s passing. Although Denver halfback Terrell Davis is an all-pro, the Jaguars were happy to see him standing back there with Elway. Or off to the side as a flanker.

In the shotgun, the Jaguars knew, Davis couldn’t bother them. They let him run a little, but they knew he couldn’t hurt them. They laughed all the way to New England.

In the exhibition season next summer, first priority for the Broncos will have to be a relearning program for their quarterback. They’ll have to put him under center, and keep him there, all summer, all fall, and all winter.

Being Elway, he’ll do it. He’ll learn it again.