Insiders Say Oscars Will Be Very ‘Patient’

There may not be a clear front-runner in the Oscar race, but that hasn’t prevented Hollywood watchers from predicting the film with the greatest chance of being nominated tomorrow: “The English Patient.”

In the best picture category, a couple of dozen industry executives, filmmakers and agents interviewed in an informal poll by The Times agreed, a nomination for “The English Patient” is considered a lock. “The movie contains those elements the academy embraces--epic scale, history, war, romance . . . all the grand themes,” one producer said.

“Shine,” described by one interviewee as an Australian “My Left Foot,” is considered the other shoo-in, since Hollywood loves stories about overcoming adversity. And, even though the quirky “Fargo” could be a tough sell among mainstream academy voters, most believe the Coen brothers’ time has come.

TriStar’s “Jerry Maguire,” a feel-good movie with a message, is regarded as the leading contender from the studio ranks. “The movie aspires to be more than mass entertainment,” an executive said. “And since, like ‘Forrest Gump,’ it broke the $100-million mark, it’s viewed as a good Hollywood movie that worked.”

The conventional wisdom has “The People vs. Larry Flynt” vying with Mike Leigh’s “Secrets & Lies” for the fifth spot. “Flynt,” most agree, is well-made and well-acted, but could be dragged down by its controversial subject matter and perceived political incorrectness. The latter, the story of a black woman’s search for her birth mother, is seen as a stretch for the academy but is tied with “Shine” as Las Vegas’ Oscar pick. Alan Parker’s “Evita” comes in farther down on the list. Though few challenge its ambition and visual strength, the film has generated as many pans as fans.

In the best director race, “The English Patient’s” Anthony Minghella and “Fargo’s” Joel Coen lead the pack, closely followed by “Flynt’s” Milos Forman, “Shine’s” Scott Hicks and “Secrets & Lies’ ” Leigh. Directors Guild of America nominee Cameron Crowe (“Jerry Maguire”) is another favorite, those polled suggest, but might be bypassed in favor of a screenwriting Oscar. Like directors Ang Lee (“Sense and Sensibility”) and Ron Howard (“Apollo 13”) last year, Crowe might not be nominated while his movie is.

“Shine’s” Geoffrey Rush is a sure shot for a best actor nomination, those polled say--with a showy, offbeat performance not unlike Nicolas Cage’s “Leaving Las Vegas” Oscar-winning turn. And since “Maguire” is considered his best work in years, Tom Cruise should make it a two-way race. Though the names of Eddie Murphy (“The Nutty Professor”) and Denzel Washington (“Courage Under Fire”) also pop up, most predict that Ralph Fiennes (“The English Patient”), Woody Harrelson (“Flynt”) and Billy Bob Thornton (“Sling Blade”)--a favorite in the acting branch, which votes on the nominees--will make the cut.

If the field for men is relatively weak, there’s a rare wealth of choices in the best actress category. The bets are on “Secrets & Lies’ ” Brenda Blethyn and “Fargo’s” pregnant police chief Frances McDormand, with “The English Patient’s” Kristin Scott Thomas coming on strong. “Breaking the Waves” newcomer Emily Watson and “Mother’s” Debbie Reynolds--a show-biz veteran appearing in her first major role in 27 years--are expected to round out the field.

“The academy will honor Reynolds for coming out of nowhere--though few people saw the film,” predicts one producer. “It’s like giving Martin Landau the Oscar for ‘Ed Wood.’ ”

The performances of Gwyneth Paltrow (“Emma”), Helen Mirren (“Some Mother’s Son”) and Diane Keaton (“Marvin’s Room”) were cited on a lesser scale--as was that of Madonna (“Evita”). Though Madonna walked off with the Golden Globe, the interviewees said, she has yet to be accepted as an “actress” or a member of the Hollywood club. However well-reviewed, Courtney Love is regarded as even more of a longshot. She’ll have to do another role to convince people she wasn’t playing herself, many respondents said.

The supporting actor category is seen as a battle between “Maguire’s” Cuba Gooding Jr. (“Show me the money!”) and Edward Norton, whose performance in “Primal Fear,” rather than those in “Everyone Says I Love You” and “Flynt,” is considered his best. Paul Scofield (“The Crucible”), Armin Mueller-Stahl (“Shine”) and William H. Macy (“Fargo”) are the strongest contenders for the other three nominations, many believe, closely followed by James Woods (“Ghosts of Mississippi”) and Hank Azaria--the housekeeper in “The Birdcage” who is credited with stealing scenes from Robin Williams and Nathan Lane.

Juliette Binoche (“The English Patient”) and Lauren Bacall (“The Mirror Has Two Faces”) got the most votes for best supporting actress--the latter’s nomination representing a virtual lifetime achievement award.

“Bacall has never been nominated and is very popular in this town,” said one marketing executive. “It could be like the year that Don Ameche won for ‘Cocoon.’ ”

“Secrets & Lies’ ” Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “The Crucible’s” Joan Allen and “Portrait of a Lady’s” Barbara Hershey are the favorites to fill out the supporting actress ranks. Renee Zellweger, the fresh face in “Maguire,” surfaced on some lists--though some contended that the role itself was not Oscar-caliber. Goldie Hawn is also given a shot since her work in “First Wives Club” and “Everyone Says I Love You” represents a comeback of sorts.

One manager called the nominations a “referendum on Hollywood.” “They’re about independent films, surprises, the forgotten ones,” she said. “Mainstream actors such as Harrison Ford and Kevin Costner are curious by their absence. ‘Maguire’--one of the few studio movies in the mix--didn’t track well among the Christmas releases. And none of the ‘tentpole’ movies made a dent.”

“The supporting actor categories are traditionally more liberated,” one producer observed. “They take chances in applauding the new and celebrating the resurrected.”

One industry observer injected a note of caution. The tea leaves, he points out, could always be wrong.

“Didn’t everyone think ‘Apollo 13,’ ‘Sense and Sensibility’ or--the rebel choice--’Babe’ would win best picture last year?” he asks. “No one I know gave ‘Braveheart’ [the eventual winner] a chance.”

* The Academy Award nominations will be televised live Tuesday morning at 5:38 on a variety of broadcast and cable channels.